Tuesday, July 10, 2007
Thursday, June 28, 2007
Friday, May 11, 2007
The great thing about boards like this is it lets you see how good traders trade (and you get to be a guinea pig for sentiment readings). The trouble with boards like these is you never know how correct a particular analysis is. If a trader makes a prediction and nails it; is due to his analytical work or merely due to chance.
The performance of some traders here is uncanny and therefore I have to believe their analytical work has value. Being relatively new to this game I try to learn as much as I can with an open mind, however I have developed this strong judgment that market context matters. A trend line (or analytical method) that normally holds under one market context will not hold under another. I feel compelled to share this.
The fact that we broke the unfair high today (one might argue the price value of that high but there is no denying we broke the level) meant that the context of the market had changed and we were no longer in consolidation of the prior day’s move.
So to wrap this up before I bore the chit out of every reader: I made this statement today and I thought I would back up my words with some data:
“I wonder how often we make the high of the day at 11:15? I wonder just how often this occurs on a Friday? This is an unusual day!”
Of course I leave it up to the reader to figure out what the PMF would look like if we consider only “unusual days”. Is it predictive?
The performance of some traders here is uncanny and therefore I have to believe their analytical work has value. Being relatively new to this game I try to learn as much as I can with an open mind, however I have developed this strong judgment that market context matters. A trend line (or analytical method) that normally holds under one market context will not hold under another. I feel compelled to share this.
The fact that we broke the unfair high today (one might argue the price value of that high but there is no denying we broke the level) meant that the context of the market had changed and we were no longer in consolidation of the prior day’s move.
So to wrap this up before I bore the chit out of every reader: I made this statement today and I thought I would back up my words with some data:
“I wonder how often we make the high of the day at 11:15? I wonder just how often this occurs on a Friday? This is an unusual day!”
Of course I leave it up to the reader to figure out what the PMF would look like if we consider only “unusual days”. Is it predictive?
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